Macroeconomic environment
- A recession in the United States could be the negative surprise for the second half of the year.
- The persistence of services inflation continues to be the main uncertainty threatening achievement of the 2% target.
- The Federal Reserve is increasingly confident that it will be able to cut its key interest rates in the second half of the year.
Financial markets
- Investors’ current infatuation with technology stocks offers opportunities for active managers.
- Between the dissolution of the National Assembly in France and the sharp upward revision of the estimate for the US budget deficit, the question of fiscal sustainability has returned to the forefront.
- Japanese equities and gold continue to benefit from favourable structural elements.
